OTTAWA'S EXPO 2012

Dr. J. K. WALKER

Nepean, ON, K2G 1Z5

Introduction

The LeBreton Flats, Chaudière Falls and adjacent islands provide a very interesting and attractive site for an exhibition. The NCC, some Federal Departments, and the cities of Ottawa and Gatineau should explore the possibility of using this area for a recognized specialized (class B) International Exposition (see BIE-Paris.org web site) before the Flats are converted into a small park with mainly commercial, residential and institutional buildings. These locations are ideal for national museums, the performing arts and an exposition as they are adjacent to the downtown cores of both Gatineau and Ottawa, and to Confederation Boulevard. An International Exposition would significantly enhance tourism in Ontario and Quebec and possibly triple the number of tourists to the National Capital Region. The exposition and the national museums would make both Canadian and international visitors more familiar with Canada, its culture and heritage. We suggest that some of the buildings for the exposition could be permanent structures such as for museums and possibly a library and performing arts centres on each side of the Ottawa River. The main part of the proposed war museum will be on the Flats but the proposed new science museum should also be located in the park as suggested in a recent study. The Quebec side is in need of a centre for the professional performing arts and the Ontario side could use a centre for the popular arts such as the author’s proposed Chateau Gardens for the Daly site. While the major expositions have a duration of six months and occur on years ending in 0 or 5 the smaller specialized exposition, which fall on the intervening years, are limited to three months and 25 hectares. This plan is a small scale version of the 1996 Ottawa/Hull effort to bid for Expo 2005.

It is suggested that the NCC, Canadian Heritage and the municipalities of Ottawa and Gatineau explore the feasibility of these concepts this winter. The cost of Federal Institutions might be distributed over time by developing only the display part of the museums for the exposition. The facilities for staff for the museums could be developed later as Federal resources might be limited for the next several years. The municipalities might endeavour to use the Federal Government's recently proposed Infrastructure funds for such capital projects which would cover possibly 3/4 of the cost with provincial support. A small scale BIE sanctioned world Expo, while mandating construction of rent free pavilions for international participants, can be hosted at a much reduced cost due to its maximum BIE footprint of 25 hectares and 3 months duration. Because the museums and other facilities are under consideration or in the planning stage the incremental cost for a coordinated exposition could be modest.

One possible theme that might be explored for the exposition is global sustainability. The increasing population (~9 billion by 2300) and decreasing natural resources and energy (petroleum), deteriorating climate, diminishing fertile land and forests, food and fresh water reserves indicate that adverse economic and living standards may occur in the near future. Such a theme could draw attention to these problems and, with a better understanding, possibly mitigate some of these impacts.

The BIE requirements for the smaller specialized events for the intervening years are much less and are intended for countries and cities with modest resources. The pavilions for the exposition must be supplied by the host country and with sound management these expositions could possibly break even. See the (BIE-Paris.org web site) for the 2008 proposal for Trieste, Italy; Thessaloniki, Greese and Zaraqoza in Spain. New York city is considering a proposal for 2012 but it is a major city and should not be in this B class of expositions.

EXPO 2012

Proposed Plan

It is suggested that a tentative plan for the expo be developed for consideration by the cities, provincial governments, Federal Departments and the NCC this winter. If the plan is approved then construction of the common infrastructure for the site and for the exposition could begin just after completion of the LeBreton Flats remediation program (mid 2006). The results of the competition for the exposition in 2012 would be known in December of 2008 so it would not have a significant delay on the development of the Flats. A proposed site plan is shown in the figure below with the red symbols representing the pavilions and the dark blue the restaurants and entertainment facilities. If the proposal is accepted then the temporary pavilions are to be removed immediately after the exposition and hence some of the NCC land in the Flats could be disposed of for commercial use at that time (2013).

The NCC’s LeBreton Flats Plan indicates that the present parkway along the north side of the Flats is to be re-routed through the flats on the new LeBreton Blvd. However, for the exposition it is necessary that as much land be available as possible for pavilions, parking and other facilities. The Chaudière and Port du Portage traffic could be temporally re-routed around the east side of the Flats along the proposed link to Bronson Ave. The traffic on the LeBreton Blvd could also be temporally re-routed along this link and then back to the Ottawa River Parkway via Bayview. A tentative plan is for the Sparks Street Mall to be extended to the Garden of the Provinces and then down to an eastern gate. The proposed blocks and streets for the Flats could be used for the temporary pavilions. The war and proposed science museums are on the north side of the Flats and should be used for the exposition. A permanent centre for the popular performing arts is needed and is indicated for the west end of the Common. Preston Street might also be dressed up with floral arrangements to provide a southern gate and a link to Dow’s Lake and the surrounding gardens.

The Transit route should also be realigned along Wellington St. with a station near the entrance on the south side of the site. The West Side of the Flats and the City of Ottawa's Bayview facility might be expanded to provide large nearby parking areas. Both promenades should be bordered with hanging floral displays and shade trees. A temporary parking lot might be located between the railway tracks and the West Side of the Flats. Another entrance could be on the north side and Booth St. with a parking lot nearby on Victoria Island for visitors from Gatineau. The site could have several restaurants (blue symbol) and some stages for different types of entertainment on the south side along the aqueduct.

The National Capital region is within a day’s drive of about 100 million potential visitors. The multicultural heritage of Canada provides a basis for attracting many other visitors from the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and the Indian subcontinent, Australia and the Far East. Consequently, it is expected that at least a few million additional visitors would be in the nation’s capital for the exposition. This would require a significant expansion of hotels, motels, B&Bs and camping facilities. It will also require some improved infrastructure for transportation and public transit. This large number of tourists would contribute significantly to the economy of the National Capital Region and enhance tourism in eastern Canada.

Proposed Theme

The increasing evidence of higher mean temperatures, more violent weather and expanding deserts in some regions all foretell climate change and associated economic impacts. Some poor agriculture, forestry, fishing, resource development and some manufacturing practices also contribute adversely to the climate and living standards. There is increasing concern world wide about such problems (see the sustainable development site and the World Summit 2002 site). A study by the North American Commission for Environmental Cooperation outlines the need for better assessment of the natural resource basis of our economy and to move more rapidly towards sustainability. There is also a need for peaceful methods of conflict resolution, as several nations now possess weapons of mass destruction and extinction. Some of these practices can be alleviated with new methods and technology. Some of the remediation programs require significant changes in the global use of energy, farming, forestry, mining, and industry and of living habits. The idea for the exposition is to bring these factors together for a better understanding by the public and hence obtain more support for political action. Some aspects of these problems could be investigated and remedies implemented in some cases. To this end, we suggest that the facilities for the exposition might be available for a few months after the exposition for teaching purposes. Each participating nation could provide some educational staff and bring community leaders from both developed and developing countries for several weeks of instruction in their particular fields. These participants could also assist these communities with the appropriate technology when the leaders return home. Hence, the exposition theme could provide a show case of environmental changes and solutions for creating a more sustainable world (CEC).

Canada has considerable expertise in some of the sustainability fields and could contribute substantially to their study and mitigation schemes. Canadians are experts in dryland farming, coastal and boreal forest management, wetland management and oceanic and fresh water fish culture. Canada's new Radarsat-2 has a world-leading capability of monitoring the earth's land and sea environmental state as it can detect very small changes in many of these environments. Canada is also a leader in geological, geophysical and hydrological interpretation of the earth's crust, rivers and oceans. Furthermore, Canada is also home to many renewable and alternative energy technology companies, including expertise in fuel cells. Canadians are known for their caring about mankind and nature. Hence, the sustainability theme for the exposition fits in well with the Canadian expertise and character.

Entertainment and Costs

Canada has some world class popular and classical performers, bands and ethnic groups. These and other entertainers could be showcased at the exposition centres for the performing arts or at the NAC and possibly the Corel centre. The Exposition would also attract a number of national and international conventions.

The cost of the display part of a new science museum or a National Library on LeBreton Flats is estimated at $100 million, while the entertainment pavilion could perhaps cost another $40 million. Assuming 8 million visits at $50 for a day pass, the revenue would be about $400 million. A contingency plan of at least 10% should be used in the event of another terrorist attack; unseasonable weather or excessive transportation cost due to expected volatile energy costs. The operating costs are estimated at ~$100 million. Thus about $250 million would be available for the international pavilions. This could provide for 25-30 substantial pavilions at ~$10 million each. These pavilions should be designed to be reusable for sale to nearby cities for community centres for the performing arts or for exhibitions. These sales might recover $50-100 million of the cost of the pavilions. Hence, the visitors and other Expo revenues should cover the incremental cost of hosting a recognized exposition, with no additional cost to the taxpayers. Assuming these museums and the performing arts pavilion would eventually be developed and the visitors' admission covers the cost of operation and the reusable international pavilions, the exposition could, with sound planning, break even.

The group for the EXPO 2005 Committee study (3) estimated that about 30% of the visitors would come from the cities and surrounding region while 70% would be tourist and need accommodation. The hotel and motel accommodation for the region in 2012 is estimated at 15,000 rooms. For the Bed and Breakfast, University Residences and campers the accommodation is estimated at 8,000 rooms. Assuming 23,000 rooms for tourists and 90 nights and two people per room or ~$300 per couple per day then the potential for these tourist for the region is ~ $620 million. About 10,000 tourist would drive up for the day and another 10,000 visitors would be staying with friends or relatives and they may add perhaps $100 million. The normal number of tourists for this summer period is about 3 million people. Hence the increment of about 2 -3 million tourists for EXPO 2012 would contribute perhaps an extra $300 million to the local economy.

A model of all the previous expositions has been compiled by numerous professionals in the field which can be used to provide an accurate background of information and probabilities on the attendance and other aspects of a proposed exposition (see JDP ECON). The cost for reports for an analysis of a proposal is about $10,000 and should be used at several stages of the planning and development of the exposition to ensure a break even return.

Next Steps

An exploratory study of the feasibility of such an international exposition should be done this winter for consideration by senior politicians and officials. A more detailed study could be made next summer so that a better estimate of the full cost, the incremental cost and other in-house resources, and also the tourist and commercial economic benefits that may be obtained. If after further consideration by senior officials the exposition is viable then a bid should be prepared. The Greece, Italy and Spain proposals should be studied and some other countries will be interested in the 2012 time slot (see expo history/competitors ).

Exposition 2015

The Chaudière Dam and Falls, the Victoria and Chaudière islands, Nepean Bay, Lemieux Island and Parc des Portageurs all contribute to a very interesting and beautiful background for a full International Exposition. A major Exposition could be located on the LeBreton Flats and the nearby Tetreau Park in Hull. LeBreton Flats is about 66 hectares and Tetreau Park is nearly 30 hectares. Additional surrounding land might be available on a temporary basis from the municipalities for the exposition and for parking. This 96 hectares (~1 million square metres) should be adequate for a major BIE exposition. The two areas could be linked by extending the bridge for Lemieux Island to the Tetreau Park in Hull or by the road on the proposed dam just above Lemieux Island (see figure below). Articulated buses could carry visitors to the different exposition sites and nearby parking lots via the Lemieux, dam and/or Chaudière bridges. Ottawa's new O train could also be extended over the existing Railway Bridge to Hull to provide another method of linking the two sites.

However, a major BIE sponsored event requires considerable resources by all three levels of government and also by the local commercial facilities for increased accommodation. Resources for the three levels are expected to be limited for the next few years after which revenue should increase. Hence if the proposal for a 2012 exposition fails then consideration should be given for another bid for a major exposition in 2015.

1. A Centre for the amateur performing arts for Ottawa: item 7 at the http://pages.istar.ca/~jwalker web site. Note,the underlined links can be followed in the same article at this site.

2. The LeBreton Flats Plan, NCC, January 1997.

3. EXPO 2005 Committee: An Exposition in the National Capital Region, July 1993 and EXPO 2005 CANADA: Appendices, Feb.27, 1995.

Appendix

The NCC plans are for the new LeBreton Boulevard to cut across the Flats from Wellington to the Parkway and to have the new War Museum on the north side of the Boulevard. A new science museum and others as well as a National Library should also be located on the Flats. The area is in need of a park and centre for the performing arts. The north side of the Boulevard should have parking for the two museums, a park and a centre for the performing arts. This theatre should include a restaurant with views over the river and islands. The park should also have a long artificial pond with a beach and be suitable for swimming in the summer and possibly skating in the winter. The grounds around the pond and performing arts theatre should be landscaped with floral beds and pathways. Because the Flats are adjacent to the downtown area, the Ottawa River and the Parkway, the land is of very high value. Only the land south of the creek should be leased/sold to developers at this time and solely for upscale commercial and residential use to optimize the taxpayer's investment.